Yavaş tempolu Bitcoin piyasa döngüsü yalnızca geçici bir endişe mi?
Daha yüksek ve dezavantajlı bir hikaye
Bitcoin piyasasının doğası gereği döngüsel olduğu iyi bilinmektedir. Piyasanın şu anda tanık olduğu gibi ani düşüşler ve sapmalar geçmişte de gözlemlendi. Bu nedenle, daha fazla ilerlemeden önce temelini anlamak önemli hale gelmekte.
BTC’nin düşüşlerinin boyutu hiçbir zaman tutarlı bir model izlemedi. Ocak ayı düşüşü bir ay uzadı, Şubat ayı düşüşü ise 18 gün içinde tamamlandı. Yine, Mart ayı bir ay sürdü. Özellikle, üç düşüşün tamamı sırasında, Bitcoin nadiren %30’dan fazla değer kaybetti.
Aslında, popüler analistler bu döngü için daha da yüksek hedefler tahmin etmeye başladılar. Örneğin, Michaël van de Poppe, 60-65 bin dolarlık direnç çizgisinin üzerindeki kırılmanın, Bitcoin’in 250 bin ila 350 bin dolar arasında herhangi bir yerde bir fiyat hedefini yakalamasına yardımcı olacağını iddia etti. Bu rakamlar şu anda ulaşılabilir olmaktan çok abartılı gibi görünse de, Bitcoin’in geçmişte benzer büyüklükte artışlara tanık olduğu unutulmamalıdır.
Ayrıca, Bitcoin’in esnekliği bu yaz nispeten düşüktü. Grafikte görüldüğü gibi, düşük trendler hiçbir zaman kendilerini çok uzun süre sürdüremediler. Dolayısıyla, yakın zamanda esneklik eğiliminde de bir değişiklik beklenebilir. Bu olduğunda, Bitcoin’in fiyatı, rallisine devam etmek için gerekli baskıyı alacaktır. King-coin‘in fiyatı muhtemelen bu sonbaharda tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine doğru hareket edecek.
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