Wyckoff Ticaret Metodu ve Kompozit Adam Modeli – Teorik (Ders-6)
Richard Demille Wyckoff; Charles Dow, Jesse Livermore, William Delbert Gann, Ralph Nelson Elliot ve Merril Lynch ile birlikte 20. yüzyılın öncülerinden kabul edilir. Bu saydığımız isimlerin hepsi ticaretin mentalitesine uygun olacak şekilde kendi stratejilerini uygulamış kişilerdir. Yıllardır bir çok ticari faaliyet, onların ön gördüğü teoriler doğrultusunda ilerlemektedir. Bu konumuzda Richard Demille Wyckoff tarafından geliştirilen Wyckoff Ticaret Metodu hakkında teorik bilgileri paylaşacağız.
Wyckoff Ticaret Metodu
Wyckoff yaklaşımı 4 ana evreden oluşur. Bunlar;
– Birikim (Acumulation)
– Yükseliş (Mark Up)
– Dağıtım (Distribution)
– Düşüş (Mark Down)
şeklindedir.
Wyckoff yaklaşımında marketin içinde bulunduğu evrenin anlaşılması ve yan pazarlarla ilişkisinin tanımlanması için kurallar ve şartlar mevcuttur.
Wyckoff market yaklaşımı 5 aşamadan oluşur. Bu aşamalar;
1- Mevcut durumun ve gelecekte trendin muhtemel yönünün belirlenmesi
Seçilecek ürünün(hisse senedi, kripto para vs) o anda bulunduğu trendin yönü ve gelecekte muhtemel hareketini devam ettireceği yönün tahmin edilebilmesidir.
2- Genel trend ile uyumlu varlıkların belirlenmesi
Seçilecek ürün, piyasanın (BİST, Kripto Para, Forex, Emtia) gidişatı doğrultusunda seçilmedir. Yatırım için seçilecek ürün, genel piyasası yükseliş trendinde ise yatırım için düşünülmelidir.
3- Hedeflerinize uygun varlıkların belirlenmesi
Yatırımcıların, yatırım yapacakları ürünleri neyi hedefleyerek yatırım yapma niyetindelerse o doğrultuda seçmeleri gereklidir.
4- Varlıkların hareket etmeye hazır olup olmadıklarının belirlenmesi
Yatırım yapılacak ürün seçilirken, gerçekten ürünün değerlenmesine sebep olacak etmenlerin var olup olmadığı araştırılmalıdır. (Arz-talep eşitliği, gelecek için plan ve projeleri, geçmişte mevcut projesini destekler başarıları vs)
5- Seçtiğiniz varlığın genel borsa endenki ile olan ilişkisinin belirlenmesi
Yatırımcının herhangi bir ürün seçerken mevcut piyasayı domine eden materyelleri takip etmesi gereklidir. Örneğin herhangi bir kripto para almayı düşünen yatırımcı, X coinin kripto para piyasasını domine eden coin olan Bitcoin ile ilişkisi belirlenmelidir. Yine aynı durum herhangi bir hisse seçileceği zaman bu hisse senedinin BİST100 yada BİST30 ile arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesi gereklidir.
Kompozit Adam (Composite Man) Modeli
Wyckof, marketteki genel sezgisel eğilimi anlamak için “Kompozit Adam” modelini örneklendirmiştir. Bu modele göre;
Marketteki tüm dalgalanmalar, sahne arkasındaki yalnızca bir adamın işlemleri ve manüplasyonları ile sizin elinizdeki parayı almak için gerçekleşir. Bu döngü sürekli tekrarlanır ve bu döngünün tekrarlanmasını sağlayan adama Kompozit Adam ismi verilir. Eğer yatırımcı onun oynadığı oyunu anlayamazsa oyunu kaybeder yani parasını kaybeder. Ancak oyunu anlayabilen ve kurallarına uyabilen yatırımcı oyunu kazanır.
Wayckoff’a göre marketteki hareketlerin gerçek yada yapay olmasının bir önemi yoktur. Marketteki hareket kompozit adamın seçimlerinin sonucudur ve yatırımcıların kazanması için kompozit adamın seçimlerini anlaması gereklidir.
Kompozit Adam modeline göre;
Kompozit Adam işlerini dikkatlice planlar, yürütür ve sonuçlandırır. Kompozit adam çok sayıda işlem yaparak biriktirdiği bir varlığın fiyat görünümünü yaratır ve yatırımcıları bu varlığı almak için çeker. Bireysel yatırımcı, bir ürün üzerinde Kompozit Adam’ın hareketlerini anlayabilmesi için o ürünün grafiğini incelemesi gereklidir. Yatırımcı, çalışma ve pratik ile birlikte bir fiyatın grafiğinin arkasındaki senaryoyu yorumlama yeteneği edinebilir. Eğer yatırımcı yeterince pratik yaparsa Kompozit Adam’ın hareketlerini anlayabilir ve bu sayede bir çok ticaret fırsatını değerlendirebilir.
Wyckoff’a göre market asla iki kez aynı şekilde hareket etmez! Daha doğrusu; trendler, boyut, ayrıntı ve uzantıdaki farklılıklar nedeniyle sonsuz farklı varyasyonda gerçekleşebilir.
Her bir varyasyon piyasa katılımcılarını şaşırtmak için bir diğerinden yeterince farklıdır.
Wyckoff Fiyat Döngüsü
Wyckoff’a göre market arz ve talebin detaylı analizi ile anlaşılabilir. Bu analiz fiyat aksiyonları, hacim ve zaman ile doğru orantılıdır.
Wyckoff Yasaları
Wyckoff’un üç temel yasası vardır. Bunlar;
1- Arz-Talep Yasası:
Fiyatın yönünü belirler. Bu yasa Wyckoff ticaret metodunun merkezinde yer alır. Bu yasaya göre, talep arzdan büyük olduğu zaman(markup) fiyatlar yükselir; arz talepten yüksek olduğu zaman(markdown) fiyatlar düşer. Analist yada yatırımcı; rallileri, tepkileri fiyat ve hacmi zaman ile birlikte değerlendirerek arz talep dengesini anlayabilir.
2- Sebep-Etki Yasası:
Başlayan bir trendin potansiyel hedeflerini belirlemek için, gerçekleşen ticaret aralığının incelenmesini kapsar. Wyckoff’un sebebi nokta-şekil (Point & Figure Chart) grafiğindeki yatay noktaların sayımı ile ölçülür ve etki belirlenir.
3- Çaba ve Sonuç Yasası:
Yakın gelecekte trendteki değişimin erken uyarısını sağlar. Büyük bir ralliden sonra, yüksek hacimli fakat kısa menzilli (Büyük çaba) fiyat çubukları gerçekleştiğinde, bu durum trend değişimi beklentisiyle varlıkların satıldığı (Düşüş trendinde ise varlıkların alındığı) anlamına gelir.
Wyckoff Ticaret Metoduna göre Grafik analizi
Ticaret Aralıklarının Belirlenmesi:
• Wyckoff metodunun amaçlarından biri, uygun risk/ödül oranının mevcut olduğu bir ticaret aralığında doğru zamanlama ile hareket etmeyi sağlamaktır. Ticaret aralıkları, bir önceki eğilimin durduğu, arz ve talep arasında göreceli bir dengenin oluştuğu yerlerdir.
• Hem birikim hem de dağıtım evrelerinin ticaret aralığında, Kompozit Adam aktif olarak alır ve satar. Birikim(Accumulation) evresinde, alımları satışlarından daha fazladır; tam tersi durumda Dağıtım(Distribution) evresinde, satışları alışlarından daha fazladır.
• Dağıtım ve Birikimin kapsamı sonrasında ortaya çıkan etkiyi belirler.
• Başarılı bir Wyckoff analizi için ticaret aralığının doğru belirlenmesi en önemli unsurdur. Ticaret aralığının doğru belirlenmesinin ardından ticaret alanından çıkış hareketinin yönünün ve büyüklüğünün doğru belirlenmesi gerekir.
• Wyckoff metodu bir ticaret aralığındaki, aşamaları(Phases) ve olayları (Events) tanımlamak için kılavuz bilgiler sağlar. Bu kılavuz bilgiler ticaret aralığından sonra başlayacak olan yeni trendde hedeflerin belirlenmesinin temelini oluşturur.
• Bir Ticaret aralığı 5 aşamadan oluşur. Bu aşamalar A-B-C-D-E ile işaretlenir.
Wyckoff Ticaret Metodunun teorik kısmı bu şekilde. En kısa sürede özellikle A-B-C-D-E Aşamalarını video destekli paylaşacağım.
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