Glassnode Bitcoin İçin İki Senaryo Ortaya Koydu: Ayı Tuzağı mı? Boğa Rallisi mi?
Bitcoin’in boğa yürüyüşlerinin başlangıcını ve en büyük ayı tuzağı olarak adlandırılan “dead cat bounce”(ölü kedi sıçrayışı) hareketini önceden gösteren veriler yeniden sinyal vermeye başladı.
Bitcoin’i kısa vadede al sat için kullanan yatırımcıların NUPL(Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) yani “Net Gerçekleşmemiş Kâr/Zarar” oranının takip edildiği bir veri mekanizması söz konusu. Bu veriler Bitcoin ticaretinden elde edilen kâr/zarar durumunu takip etmek için kullanılmaktadır. Kabaca hesaplanması gerçekleşmemiş kâr ile gerçekleşmemiş zarar arasındaki farktır. Bu veriye bakarak piyasa genelinin kârda mı yoksa zararda mı olduğu yorumu yapılabilmektedir. Mayıs ayında başlayan büyük çöküş ile Bitcoin yatırımcıları NUPL değerine göre zarar etmeye başlamıştı. 12 Ağustos itibariyle veriler yeniden sıfırın üstüne çıkarak pozitife geçti. Sonuç olarak NUPL değeri piyasanın hızlı yükselişi ile yeniden Bitcoin yatırımcılarının kârlı pozisyona geçtiğini gösterdi. Göstergenin bu şekilde değişmesinin iki temel sonucu söz konusu. Bunlar;
- Ayı tuzağı
- Boğa piyasasının ilk adımları
Blockchain tabanlı analitik şirketi Glassnode tarafından oluşturulan NUPL verileri, genel itibariyle boğa başlangıcının sinyalini vermektedir. Ancak şirket verileri paylaşırken yatırımcıların 2014/2015, 2018 ve 2020 yılı Mart ayındaki ayı tuzağı olarak adlandırılan sahte yükselişlere de dikkat çekti. Glassnode, NUPL değerinin bu tarihlerde pozitife döndükten kısa bir süre sonra piyasada sert düşüşler yaşandığını da grafiğine eklemiştir. Bunu da uzun zamandır zararda olan yatırımcıların kârlı pozisyona dönmelerinden dolayı yeni bir düşüş dalgasına kapılmamak adına satış yönlü tercihlerde bulunmalarına bağlanmaktadır.
Glassnode, bu ayı tuzaklarını daha açıklayıcı olması adına detaylı bir grafik daha paylaştı.
Yukarıda yer alan grafikte 2014/2015 yıllarında Bitcoin yaklaşık olarak 4 aylık bir düşüş periyodunda %70 değer kaybettikten sonra NUPL değeri negatife dönmüştü. Bitcoin’de yaşanan bu uzun süreli düşüşlerin sonunda yaklaşık 1 ay boyunca neredeyse sürekli değer kazanarak %100’e yakın bir yükseliş gösterdi. Bu yükseliş ile NUPL verileri pozitife dönse de 1 ayın sonunda yeni bir çöküş yaşandı ve Bitcoin yaklaşık %77 oranında değer kaybederek ayı sezonunun dibini yaşadı.
Bir diğer ayı tuzağında ise 2018 yılında Bitcoin %69.20 oranında düşüş yaşadıktan sonra sert alıcı tepkileri ile %97.41 oranında değer kazanmıştır. Ancak buda bir ayı tuzağı olduğundan ötürü yükselişlerin sonunda yeniden sert düşüşler ile %80’e yakın değer kaybetmiştir.
İçinde bulunduğumuz konum göz önünde bulundurulduğunda uzun bir düşüş sürecinin sonunda soluksuz bir yükseliş ile piyasanın canlandığı görülmektedir. Son iki hafta içinde hem Bitcoin hem de alt coinler ciddi yükselişler sergiledi. Total verilerine bakıldığında kripto para piyasasının toplam market hacmi yeniden 2 trilyon dolar seviyelerine geldiği görülmektedir. Buda piyasaya ciddi anlamda bir para akışı olduğunun kanıtıdır. Yani piyasaya Bitcoin bazında da alt coin bazında da hacim girişi var.
Ayrıca Glassnode, yaptığı paylaşımda cüzdanında Bitcoin’i al-sat yani kısa vadede tutanların oranının uzun vade yatırımcılarına göre ciddi anlamda düştüğünü açıkladı. Buda piyasaya olan güvenin arttığını, yatırımcıların Bitcoin’i bir yatırım aracı olarak daha fazla benimsediklerini göstermektedir. Yani NUPL değeri yeniden pozitife dönmüşken bir boğa yükselişinin gerçekleşmesi için tüm zeminler yavaş yavaş oluşmaktadır.
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