ABD Merkez Bankası, beklenildiği gibi politika faiz oranında değişiklik yapmadı ve faiz oranı yüzde 0-0,25 aralığında sabit bırakıldı. FED toplantısı sonrası yapılan açıklamada faiz oranının sabir kalması oy birliği ile sağlandığı belirtildi.
ABD Merkez Bankası Başkanı Jerome Powell, toplantı sonrası yaptığı açıklamada “Pandemi faktörleri istihdamda büyüme üzerinde baskı yaratıyor, ancak bu baskı önümüzdeki aylarda azalacak. Enflasyon kayda değer şekilde artı ve gerilemeye başlamadan önce önümüzdeki aylarda yükselmeye devam edecek. Arz tarafında yaşanan darboğazlar öngörülenden daha büyük oldu. Hala, enflasyonun uzun vadede düşük olmasını bekliyoruz. Yeni politika çerçevemiz enflasyon beklentilerinin iyi çıpalanmasının önemini vurguluyor, enflasyon bekleyişleri hedefimiz ile genel olarak tutarlı görünüyor.” şeklinde konuştu.
Konuyla alakalı uzman analistler yorumda bulundu.
DELTA VARYANTI BASKI YARATABİLİR
Eral Karayazıcı – Inveo Portföy Fon Yönetim Müdürü:
ABD Merkez Bankası beklentiler doğrultusunda bir karar alarak faiz oranında ve varlık alım programında bir değişiklik yapmadı.
Varlık alım programında kesintinin ne zaman başlayacağı fiyatlamalar üzerinde belirleyici olacak faktör ve toplantı metninde bu takvime yönelik kayda değer bir sinyal yer almıyor.
Basın konferansında soruları yanıtlayan Fed Başkanı Powell, ekonomiye verilen desteğin azaltılması için öncelikle istihdamda güçlü artış görmeyi gereksindiklerini ancak delta varyantının ekonomik aktivite üzerinde baskı yaratabileceğini ifade etti.
Toplantı, Fed’in varlık alımlarında kesinti kararı almak için asgari 2-3 ay güçlü istihdam verisi ve delta varyantının bir tehdit olmaktan çıktığını düşündürecek gelişmeler görmeyi gereksindiğine işaret ediyor.
Piyasa etkisi pozitif olmaya aday bu toplantıyı takiben bir sonraki Fed toplantısı 21-22 Eylül tarihlerinde gerçekleştirilecek ve hız kazanan salgın da göz önüne alınırsa o toplantıda dahi varlık alımlarında kesinti kararı alınması kolay gözükmüyor.
FED PİYASALARI OYALAMAYA DEVAM EDİYOR
Rıdvan Baştürk – Fon Yöneticisi:
Bugünkü Fed toplantısından sürpriz bir karar çıkmasa da Fed Başkanı Powell’in varlık alımlarını azaltmayı tartıştık ve gelecek toplantılarda bu konuyu daha çok konuşacağız ifadesi önemliydi. 22 Eylül’deki FED toplantısı artık belirleyici nokta olacaktır. Çünkü artık tahvil azaltım konuşmaları Fed toplantılarında güçlü bir şekilde yer almaya başladı. Gelecek süreçte hem enflasyon hem de istihdam verileri bu konuda sinyal vermeye başlayacaktır.
Toplantının detaylarına baktığımızda ekonominin iyileşmeye devam ettiği ifadelerine yer verildiğini görmekteyiz. Diğer yandan delta varyantının istihdam üzerinde olumsuz etki yapma olasılığı da konuşulmaya başlandı. Powell, enflasyondaki yükseliş geçici dese de bu geçicilik ortadan kalkınca enflasyonun nerede olacağı konusunda bir görüş bildirmiyor.
Gelecek aylarda enflasyon yüksek kalmaya devam edecek. Ve geçicilik gittiğinde muhtemelen yüzde 2 üzerinde kalıcılık sağlayacak. Bu da Fed’in hedeflerinin üzerinde bir enflasyon demektir. Böyle bir durumda Fed, enflasyon riskini göz önünde bulundurarak piyasadaki desteğini azaltmaya başlayacaktır.
Kısacası Fed piyasaları oyalamaya devam ediyor ve piyasanın baskı altında kalmasını engellemeye çalışıyor. Fiyatlamalara baktığımızda çok önemli bir hareket yapısı görmüyoruz. Dolar endeksinde kısmi düşüşler yaşanırken, majör borsalar ise yatayda kaldı. Ons altın tarafında ise neredeyse hiç hareket yaşanmadı.
İLK İŞARET GELMEYE BAŞLAMIŞ GİBİ
Seda Yalçınkaya Özer – İntegral Yatırım Araştırma Müdürü:
Amerika Merkez Bankası politika faizini değiştirmedi ve yüzde 0 – yüzde 0.25 aralığında sabit tuttu. Piyasa beklentisi faizlerde değişiklik olmaması yönündeydi. Fed kararı oy birliğiyle alındı.
Karar metninde ekonomideki gidişatın olumlu yönde gittiğine odaklanılmış durumda. Covid 19’un 4. dalgasına ilişkin ya da delta varyantıyla alakalı yeni bir endişe karar metnine girmemiş. Ekonomide kayda değer bir ilerleme görülene kadar varlık alım programının sürdürülebileceği yönündeki ifade değiştirildi. Sözel yönlendirmede bir adım ileri gidilmiş görünüyor.
Ekonominin hedeflerine ilerlediği vurgusu var. Bu piyasa tarafından şahin olarak algıladı. Bu toplantıdan daha nötr açıklamaların gelmesini beklenti yönündeydi. Ancak piyasayı hazırlama konusunda adımlar atılmış gibi görünüyor.
Tapering konusunda gerekli koşullar yavaş yavaş oluşmaya başlandığına yönelik ilk işaretler gelmeye başlamış gibi. Fed, muhtemelen piyasayı kademe kademe tahvil alımlarını azaltmaya yönelik hazırlıyor.
Kaynak: HaberTürk
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