9 Ağustos Ons Altın Analizi
Cuma günü sert bir düşüş ile kapanış yapan Ons Altın, piyasaların açılışı ile sert bir düşüş daha yaşadı.
Grafik üzerinde inceleme yaptığımızda Ons altının dolar karşısında ciddi anlamda değer kaybettiği görülmektedir. Özellikle kripto para piyasasının yeniden yükselişe geçmesi ile emtialar zayıflamaya başlamıştı.
Lider kripto para birimi Bitcoin öncülüğünde diğer kripto paraların yeniden yükselişi dolaşımdaki parayı yeniden kripto piyasasına kaydırmaya başladı. ABD, doların düşüşünü engellemek adına her geçen gün yeni önlemler almaya çalışıyor. Bu önlemler ile dolar değerinde kısmi kayıplar olsa da yine de ayakta duruyor.
Dolar küresel piyasalarda değer kazanınca kripto paraların ve emtiaların değer kaybettiği bilinmektedir. Şimdiki tabloda ise dolar değer kazanırken kripto paralarda yükselişine devam etmekte. İşte burada her iki piyasayı beslemek için bir yerden para çıkışı olması gerekti. Cuma günkü kötü kapanışının ardından piyasa açılışı ile yeniden düşen ons altında para çıkışının emtialardan olduğunu doğrular nitelikte oldu.
Grafiğimiz üzerinde görüldüğü gibi ons altın yılları baz alan büyük bir çanak görünümüne kavuşmuştu. Önceki analizlerimizde Altın/TL kurundada bu çanağa dikkat çekmiş ve teknik olarak bir kulp oluşumunu görme ihtimalini dile getirmiştik. Ons altında da aynı görünümün gerçekleşme ihtimali söz konusu. Tabi bu oluşum bir kaç gün yada bir kaç ay içinde olabilecek hareketler değildir. Örneğin grafiğimzideki çanağın oluşum süresi yaklaşık 8 yıldır.
Uzun vadede yine kârlı olacak emtialardan biri olan altının kısa vadede değer kaybının devam etme ihtimali söz konusu. Özellikle son bir yıl içinde bugünkü düşüş ile 6. kere test ettiği 1670-1700 dolar seviyelerini kaybetmesi durumunda teknik anlamda düşüş hız kazanacaktır. Altının dolar karşısında yeniden yükselişe geçebilmesi için teknik olarak 2000 dolar üstüne çıkması gerekmektedir. Grafiğimizde de muhtemel Elliot dalga analizi mevcuttur. 2000 dolar üstü kapanış durumunda dalga analizi de geçerliliğini yitirecektir.
Ayrıca dünya bankalarının sürekli para basması, kripto para piyasasının emtialardan daha hızlı ve çok kazanç sağlaması ve beklenen borsa rallilerinin sonucu olarak yatırımcıların altına olan ilgisinin düşmesi beklenmektedir. Dolar değerini koruyup kripto para piyasası yükselişine devam ederse altın eşliğinde diğer emtialarda da düşüşte devam edecektir.
Son olarak ons altının oluşturduğu çanak hareketine beklenen kulp oluşumunu gerçekleştirmesi durumunda eski zirve seviyesini aşarak 2600 dolar seviyelerini görmesi muhtemeldir.
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