23 Ağustos Bitcoin Analizi
Bitcoin, uzun bir süre sonra yeniden 50,000 dolar üzerine çıktı.
Gün içinde Telegram kanalımızda Glassnode verilerine göre elinde Bitcoin tutan cüzdanların kârlı olanların oranını paylaşmıştık. Aşağıda da gördüğünüz üzere Bitcoin sahibi cüzdanların %86,528’i kârlı durumda. Bu ister istemez kâr satışlarının gelme ihtimalini doğuruyor. Gün içinde de ufak geri çekilmeler yaşandı.
Bitcoin’in grafiğine bakarsak 29,278 dolardan gelen yükselen trendin(sarı) gayet sağlıklı olduğu görünmektedir. Yatay bazlı minör destek olan 47,750-48,500 dolar seviyeleri de son günlerde destek olarak çalışmaktadır. Şuan içinde Bitcoin’e destek olabilecek en iyi lokasyon burasıdır. Geri çekilmelerin devam etmesi durumunda yükselen trendin destek olacağını düşünebiliriz. Buda 46,800 $ seviyelerine yeniden dönme ihtimalini gösterir. Ayrıca geri çekilmeler sert olmadığı sürece bunlar düzeltme hareketleri olarak algılanmalıdır. Sonuç itibariyle kârlı pozisyonda olan yatırımcıların kâr satışları yapma ihtimali yüksektir.
Bitcoin grafiğinde Fibonacci düzeltme aracını kullanarak bir çizim yapıldığında yükseliş ve düşüş anlarında destek ve direnç lokasyonların neredeyse %100 çalıştığını görmekteyiz. Yine grafiğimizde ATH seviyesinden son dip seviyesine bir Fibonacci düzeltme aracı çektiğimiz zaman bize önümüzdeki bir sonraki direncin 51,083 $ olabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu nokta Fibonacci göstergesinde de önemli bir noktadır. Çünkü burası “altın oran” olarak tabir edilen “0,618” noktasıdır.
Fibonacci düzeltme aracı konulu teknik analiz makalemizi okumak için tıklayın…
Teknik analizde Fibonacci 0,618 noktası güçlü destek ve güçlü direnç olarak kabul edilir. Yani Bitcoin’in 51,000 dolar üzerine çıkabilmesi zor olacaktır. Ancak kırılımın gelmesi ve bu lokasyonun desteğe dönmesi sonucu da güçlü bir destek görevi görme ihtimali yüksektir. Yatırımcıların destek lokasyonlarında ürün alıp direnç lokasyonlarında kâr satışları yapması ticaretlerinin kârlı sonuçlar vermesini sağlar. Dolayısıyla bir dirençte olduğumuzdan ötürü kâr satışlarının yapılması mantıklı olacaktır.
Bitcoin Dominance Seviyesi
Bitcoin düşerken Dominance değerinin yükseldiği de görülmektedir. Buda piyasadan çıkan paranın Bitcoin’den çok altcoinlerden olduğunu göstermektedir. Altcoin yatırımcılarının da Bitcoin yatırımcıları gibi kâr satışları yaparak stoplu işlem takibi yapması sağlıklı olacaktır. Anlık olarak 44,25 seviyesinde olan Dominance değerinin destek noktası %44 oranıdır. Buranın kırılımı gerçekleşip düşüşün devam etmesi durumunda altcoinlerdeki yükselişler devam edecektir.
Unutulmaması gereken bir hususta;
Fiyatlar hiç bir zaman sürekli yukarı yada sürekli aşağı doğru hareket etmez. Dolayısıyla geri çekilmelerde yada anlık sert yükselişlerde ani kararlar vermek yatırımcıların zarar etmesine sebep olabilir.
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